The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. RCP House Map Race Changes. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. November 7:Toss-up races projected. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. We rated every race in play in 2022. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. 26th February 2023. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Our forecast has three versions. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. California. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. Alaska. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. Hover over a district for more information. Battle for the House 2022. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. 49 -1. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. By Leke Baiyewu. Benjamin Kalu. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. You can also view these ratings as a table. Michael F.Q. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Senate. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Will it be a close race or, um, not? McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. File. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. Current House. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. Analysis>. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. 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